As the weather settles down in the aftermath of Storm Darragh, thoughts have turned to the forecast for Christmas. High pressure is in charge for the most part, but with just over two weeks until the big day can forecasters answer the snow question?
The official Met Office definition of a white Christmas is for one snowflake to be observed falling in the 24 hours of December 25 somewhere in the UK. This happens on more than half of Christmas Days, but the idyllic picture of more widespread lying snow is much rarer.
This has only happened four times since 1960, the most recent of which was during the very snowy December of 2010 when more than 80% of weather stations reported snow lying on the ground on Christmas Day.
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The Met Office says that it is “too early” for an in-detailed forecast, but they do have a long-range forecast for the UK as a whole whuch is updated daily. It shows that it is likely that what they describe as an “unsettled regime” will dominate next week in the lead up to Christmas.
The forecast says that temperatures will “vary around average, with oscillations between colder and milder interludes”. Join our WhatsApp news community here for the latest breaking news. You will receive updates from us daily.
Looking further ahead to the forecast for Christmas Eve until Tuesday, January 7, it says: “Mainly unsettled conditions appear likely for most, with spells of wind and rain followed by showers affecting most areas but especially the north and northwest of the UK.”
It adds: “Some sleet and snow is also likely at times, especially on high ground in the north. However, there are also some signs that more settled conditions are possible at times, these perhaps most likely across the south late in December or into early January.”
Looking at temperatures, the Met Office says they are “likely to be around average overall, with any more settled interludes bringing a risk of frost and fog.” However, lead BBC weather presenter Sarah Keith-Lucas has pointed out that such forecasts as “notoriously difficult” to predict.
She says: “Weather forecasters take into consideration lots of variables such as where the air is expected to be coming from – for example, an Arctic air mass is most likely to bring us snow – as well as the intensity of any rainfall approaching that may turn to snow if temperatures are low enough.
“Weather supercomputers use several models to generate forecast data using slightly different variables. This can give us an idea of whether snow is a likely scenario around 10 days in advance. Then forecasters use their skill and experience to firm up on details with about five days to go.”