The Welsh Labour Government will announce its draft budget for 2025-26 today (Tuesday, December 10). It is an important date in the Welsh political calendar, laying out how £25bn will be spent on key services like health, education, rural affairs and local government.
Welsh finance minister Mark Drakeford’s plans will be made public around 1pm, before he speaks to the Senedd this afternoon. There is no vote on the deal that comes in March. Once the budget is made public, opposition politicians will have to decide if they will back it. The most likely partners are Plaid Cymru or the sole Lib Dem, Jane Dodds.
The Tories have never backed a Labour deal while Plaid Cymru has backed the previous three as part of a deal – the cooperation agreement – with Labour, however that was ended by Plaid during Vaughan Gething’s tenure.
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There are however implications if no-one will work with Labour, politically, it is bad news for Labour because it shows their vulnerability in the Senedd, but Mark Drakeford is one of those saying that actually it looks bad for the whole institution because not working together has financial ramifications that impacts everyone. He told WalesOnline. “The consequences of not having a budget are dramatic. I do not believe that it is in any political parties interest here to go into an election against the background of an institution that is clearly not able to do the things that people in Wales expect it to be able to do, and it will be the institution that will attract people’s concerns not any one part.” You can read those comments in full here.
If there is no budget passed by the start of the financial year in April 2025, there is the potential for a 5% cut in funds from the UK Government. Dr Ed Poole, from the Wales Governance Centre, said that was “very unlikely to get there”. But he said it did give an incentive to politicians to cut a deal in time.
Heledd Fychan, who speaks on finance for Plaid Cymru was asked on BBC Radio Wales this morning if her party was “up for a budget deal”. She answered with a single word. “No”. For our free daily briefing on the biggest issues facing the nation, sign up to the Wales Matters newsletter here
“We want fair funding for Wales, we’ve been very clear this is the worst financial settlement for all the devolved nations, obviously welcoming more funding, but it doesn’t mean it’s adequate nor fair for Wales. Where is the £4bn that Labour used to agree with us is owed to Wales from the HS2 consequential? Why aren’t the Crown Estates being devolved here? Where is the fair funding formula to replace Barnett?”
“All those things were things Labour used to agree with us on, they promised so much for years, in the run up to having a UK Government about how things would be transformational for Wales, this isn’t a budget that will transform public services.”Asked if her party was playing “hard ball” ahead of the 2026 Senedd election.
“We want to ensure the First Minister fights for Wales. Fights for fair funding for Wales. The fact is that much of this funding announced today will go towards National Insurance contributions, we’ve heard from countless third sector organisations which do vital work to support people in our communities, how they have been impacted by that change. If Welsh Government don’t support them then things will be so much worse for so many people”.
Peter Fox, Conservative MS for Monmouth, was also interviewed on the same show and said he didn’t expect anything to change in his party, in terms of supporting Labour. “We are the official opposition, the opposition’s job is to hold the government to account, not help them get their budget through. I doubt that will change,” he said. “It’s important the budget does go through for the good of the people of Wales”.