A weather forecaster has warned of “very unsettled” weather around the new year. BBC Breakfast’s Carol Kirkwood said it could be “wet, windy, with some of us seeing some snow”.
It has been a grey and mild Christmas, but it looks set to change next week around the new year period. There is still some uncertainty in the forecast but long-range forecasts say fronts or low-pressure areas are increasingly likely to move south/east across much of the country, “bringing an increased threat of heavy rain and perhaps strong winds”.
Temperatures are expected to start falling from New Year’s Eve and the ECM weather model shows icy condition developing early next week with temperatures free-falling. By Thursday, January 2, various forecasts for Wales show overnight temperatures ranging from -4C to -10C.
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Equally, there’s currently a divergence of opinion over the prospects for snow. The GFS model is less optimistic, forecasting a smattering in northwest Wales on New Year’s Day. Other models show some heavy falls over Wales on January 1, especially on the mountains.
Given the difficulties of forecasting snow more than a couple of days ahead, current projections should be treated with caution. The Met Office said which areas see rain or snow will depend on how far south next week’s cold air sinks.
The Met Office long range forecast for December 30 to January 8 says: “Colder air from the north progresses southwards, the risk of sleet and snow increases, especially in northern areas, but this will depend each day on where the thermal boundary lies.”
It adds: “Temperatures will start around average but will become a little below average for most, especially in the north, though milder interludes are still possible in the south. While there is moderate to high confidence in this trend, confidence is low for the exact positioning of any systems, which will be crucial in determining which areas see rain or snow.”