BBC weather presenter Carol Kirkwood has said that best word to use to explain the weather around Christmas is “changeable”. She said on Monday that the best chance of seeing a white Christmas was in the northern hills of Scotland, but warned that that was based on current weather models which are causing confusion.
She explained: “It can still change because the models aren’t converging. We have gone from quite a bit of snow, to no snow to a westerly, to wind and rain. There is still a lot to play for.”
The Met Office is always reticent to forecast more than five days ahead as they say “the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play – small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days’ time.”
READ MORE: Ed Sheeran just came to Wales to eat dinner at an amazing restaurant
READ MORE: Boss of debt-riddled firm stops paying top employee then sacks him by WhatsApp
They say that while they forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using their ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as their shorter range forecasts.
The forecasting agency’s UK long range forecast for Friday, December 20, to Sunday, December 29, is showing a changeable picture.
It says: “After a mainly dry start on Friday, a band of showery rain is likely to move southeastwards across the UK. Beyond this, it will remain changeable through the rest of the period. The wettest and windiest conditions will probably be in the north, with spells of heavy rain at times as low pressure systems pass by.”
It adds: “Further south, whilst some unsettled weather is likely at times, it will probably be drier overall with a greater influence of high pressure. Temperatures will likely vary around average, with both some milder and colder interludes at times. Snow will most likely be restricted to high ground, although could temporarily fall at lower levels in the north during any colder interludes.”
Carol Kirkwood said that this week will be “changeable” too starting off mild before turning colder by Wednesday. The Met Office forecast for Wales says it will be “largely dry with sunny spells and feeling mild”.
The forecast says:
Monday
Perhaps some early patchy drizzle but otherwise largely dry with sunny spells developing, and the brisk westerly winds slowly easing down. Staying mild and feeling more pleasant than in recent days, especially in the sunshine. Maximum temperature 12 °C.
Mostly dry overnight. Early clear spells, then increasing amounts of cloud developing from the west, perhaps with some light drizzle for western hills later. Winds freshening, and remaining frost free. Minimum temperature 7 °C.
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy on Tuesday. Patchy drizzle developing in the north and west, then rain spreading in from the southwest later in the afternoon. Strengthening and gusty winds, with coastal gales. Maximum temperature 12 °C.
Outlook for Wednesday to Friday
Further outbreaks of rain developing mid-week. Turning brighter during Thursday and for a while on Friday, though with some showers at times. Often windy. Briefly very mild, though colder later.