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This weekend is the definitive round for three of the four Welsh clubs when it comes to the Challenge Cup.
The Ospreys have already qualified for the round of 16 following their comfortable victory over Newcastle Falcons on Saturday, but a victory over Pau in France this weekend will guarantee Mark Jones’ side a home draw. But Cardiff, Dragons and Scarlets are in danger of dropping out of the competition at the pool stage if they fall to defeat.
The top four finishers in each pool qualify for the knockout stages, while four teams from the Investec Champions Cup drop down into the Challenge Cup. On top of that the top two sides in each pool are guaranteed a home draw in the round of 16, along with the top two third-placed finishers.
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Rugby correspondent Steffan Thomas runs through the permutations after another dramatic weekend of European rugby.
Cardiff
Technically Matt Sherratt’s side could lose and still qualify but in reality they need to beat Connacht on Friday night. Cardiff are currently third in Pool One with seven points and a bonus-point victory could even see the Welsh club bag a home tie in the round of 16.
Elsewhere in the pool, Lyon host the Cheetahs and Zebre take on Perpignan. If Cardiff win, with both Perpignan who travel to Zebre and the Cheetahs winning with a bonus point, then all four could be tied on 11 points meaning it would come down to points difference.
But barring an unlikely sequence of results a bonus-point win should see Cardiff safely into the knockout stages.
Pool 1: 1. Connacht 15pts, 2. Lyon 9pts, 3. Cardiff 7pts, 4. Perpignan 6pts, 5. Cheetahs 6pts, 6. Zebre 2pts.
Dragons RFC
The Dragons’ hopes are hanging by a thread after a 24-15 home defeat to Pau yesterday but the permutations are straightforward here. Both the Dragons and the Lions are currently tied on five points, with both sides going head-to-head in Johannesburg this Saturday.
Any win will take the Dragons through while a draw, without the Lions picking up a bonus point, will see the Welsh club qualify.
Pool 2: 1. Montpellier 14pts, 2. Pau 10pts, 3. Ospreys 10pts, 4. Dragons 5pts, 5. Lions 5pts, 6. Newcastle Falcons 0pts.
Scarlets
The Scarlets are currently fifth in Pool 3 and play Vannes, who are fourth, in Llanelli this Saturday. Put simply, if Dwayne Peel’s side win they will qualify for the round of 16, while a bonus-point win could even result in a home knockout tie for the west Walians.
A draw is probably no good for the Scarlets. If they draw with a try bonus point there is a very slim chance they could still qualify if Bayonne fail to pick up any points against Gloucester.
Pool 3: 1. Edinburgh 11pts, 2. Gloucester 9pts, 3. Bayonne 9pts, 4. Vannes 7pts, 5. Scarlets 6pts, 6. Black Lion 4pts.