The Met Office has had its say on whether the UK will see Arctic blasts, snow bombs and blizzards this Christmas. The forecast agency’s long range weather forecast between Monday, December 16 until Monday, December 25, predicts some hill snow in the north will be likely during this period.
For its long range weather forecast for Thursday, December 26 until Thursday, January 9, the Met Office has suggested that some sleet and snow is also likely to fall , especially on high ground in the north, with temperatures dropping.
One report suggested that the UK could see severe weather before the Christmas day. WXCHARTS suggests there could be a “400-mile winter storm hours before Christmas Day” with a prediction that at 6pm on Christmas Eve, a storm is set to cover almost all of the UK, with brutal weather stretching from Wick in Scotland to Birmingham. For the latest Welsh news delivered to your inbox sign up to our newsletter
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But the Met Office has poured doubt on those claims and said it is simply “still too early to say” whether snow will be falling over the festive season or not. They state: “We actually start getting questioned about this in October (sometimes before), but the short and disappointing answer is; it is still too early to say. It’s not until the week before Christmas that we should start to have an idea about the chances of seeing any flurries on the big day.”
When addressing reports of Arctic blasts, snow bombs and snowstorms around Christmas, the Met Office has pointed out that “single model runs are not reliable enough to work out a detailed forecast”. Met Office Meteorologist Aidan McGivern said: “What meteorologists actually do, is rather than cherry pick one computer model run for more than two weeks’ time, the computer models are run lots and lots of times and then we can pick out areas where they are agreeing and areas where they are disagreeing. Then we can talk about likely weather patterns and less-likely weather patterns, common themes and so on.”
Even the forecast agency’s long range weather forecast isn’t as “detailed” as the five-day forecast, the Met Office has said. According to the agency, it gives a “broad description” of what we can expect and different factors can attribute to a change in the weather forecast.
On their website, the Met Office says: “Therefore, whilst our long-range forecast gives a prediction as to what the weather may be doing over the Christmas period, we have to acknowledge that many outcomes remain possible, and it won’t be until much closer to the time that we can say with any more certainty.”
The Met Office warns that predicting snowfall is ultimately “tricky”. It says: “Forecasting impactful snow is famously tricky in the UK. There are a number of factors that our expert meteorologists look for and numerous competing elements that all have to be exact for snow to actually fall. Sometimes, just a fraction of a degree in temperature can make the difference between the chance to build a beautifully formed snowman, and the joys of a sleety slushy day. That’s why forecasting snow weeks in advance is extremely tricky. “